燃气轮机因其高功率密度和热效率在多个领域有广泛应用，但运行中的高速旋转和复杂结构导致性能随时间衰退，因此，对燃气轮机气路系统进行状态监测和评估至关重要。本文针对燃气轮机气路系统的健康状态评估问题，提出了一种基于集值统计法的模糊综合评估模型。首先，通过层次化分解将气路系统分为目标层和项目层，利用概率密度法确定底层参数的健康状况，并将其转化为0至1之间的数值以反映运行状态；接着，采用模糊综合评估法，结合集值统计法确定权重，建立了气路评估流程；此外，本文引入了变权重理论以适应系统发生故障时的评估需求，从而建立气路评估模型并得到其运行状态健康情况。通过实例分析计算获得集值统计法定权的可靠度为94.09%，以多组测试数据验证了评估模型的科学性与可行性，评估结果与仿真数据吻合，置信度达到98%，为燃气轮机气路系统的健康状态评估提供了理论支持和实践指导。

Gas turbines are widely used in many fields because of their high power density and thermal efficiency, but the high-speed rotation and complex structure in operation cause the performance to decline with time, so it is very important to monitor and evaluate the condition of gas turbine gas path system. In this paper, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on set-valued statistics is proposed to evaluate the health status of gas turbine gas path system. Firstly, the gas path system is divided into target layer and project layer by hierarchical decomposition. Probability density method is used to determine the health status of the underlying parameters and convert them into a value between 0 and 1 to reflect the operating status. Then, using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, combined with set value statistics method to determine the weight, the gas path evaluation process is established. In addition, variable weight theory is introduced in this paper to adapt to the evaluation needs of the system when the fault occurs, so as to establish the gas path evaluation model and get its operating state health. Through case analysis and calculation, the reliability of set-valued statistical legal weight is 94.09%, and multiple groups of test data are used to verify the scientific and feasibility of the evaluation model. The evaluation results are consistent with the simulation data, and the confidence is 98%, which provides theoretical support and practical guidance for the health status evaluation of gas turbine gas path systems.

船舶动力基础科研（KY10300240082）