为解决多参数耦合情况下蒸汽动力系统整体运行稳定性评估的问题，在基于时间序列分析的单参数运行稳定性评估的基础上，提出了一种蒸汽动力系统整体运行稳定性评估方法。该方法通过分析蒸汽动力系统运行参数的相关性和作用机制，选取相关状态参数建立系统的整体运行稳定性评估指标体系；然后通过引入连接函数（Copula函数）建立稳定性指标计算模型，实现系统在多参数耦合情况下的联合失稳概率和整体运行稳定性指数计算。经实例验证，该方法能够依据监测参数历史数据，相对精确地预测出系统未来一段时间的运行状态，预测精度达到秒级。

In order to solve the problem of overall operation stability evaluation of steam power system under multiparameter coupling, an overall operation stability assessment method for steam power system was proposed on the basis of single parameter operation stability assessment based on time series analysis. This method analyzed the correlation and mechanism of the operating parameters of steam power system, and selected relevant state parameters to establish an overall operational stability evaluation index system; and then, a stability index calculation model was established by introducing Copula function to achieve the joint instability probability and overall operational stability index calculation of systems under multi parameter coupling. The example validation shows that this method can monitor the historical data of parameters and predict the operating state of system with relative precision for a period of time, which prediction accuracy reaches the second level.

TK284.1

国家自然科学基金（51909254）；海军工程大学自主研发基金（425317T014）